Catching AIDS

In 1979, when the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) was rare, in order to become infected, a large number of sexual contacts was generally required. HIV is no longer rare in the U.S. population. According to current scientific guesstimates, I million U.S. citizens are currently infected with the HIV virus. If this figure is correct, then one out of approximately every 270 people in the United States is infected. AIDS is not evenly distributed throughout the United States. Pockets of high concentration exist among specific sub-populations and in certain geographical locations. Thus, again assuming that the I million guesstimate is correct, some areas of the United States many have only one infected individual out of thousands, while other areas may have one infected individual out of dozens.

Unfortunately, up to now, most estimates of the number of HIV-infected people have been overblown. As early as 1983, selected scientists, and consequently the media, trumpeted estimates of 1 to 3 million. At the time, these estimates were exaggerated. Now, however, the AIDS epidemic is 10 years old, and scientists have tabulated over 200,000 total registered AIDS cases, and also have HIV screening results from hundreds of hospitals, hundreds of testing centers, and millions of armed forces recruits. Consequently, the current I million estimate carries a lot of weight.